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| Ryan Braun - Straight-up killer. And MVP. |
One of the posts I wanted to do involved making my case why Ryan Braun should win the NL MVP instead of Matt Kemp (as I fear is going to happen). I was also going to touch on the other major awards from my vantage point, though they are generally not too controversial this year. I promise that I will get to those ideas briefly near the end of this post. I also do need to go back and review my preseason predictions as promised (note: that is NOT going to be pretty - thanks a bunch, Twins!).
However, I would not be a baseball fan with a blog or any outlet of writing words down if I let what transpired on Wednesday, September 28, 2011 go by without saying a little about that most magical of nights for any true fan of the game. Although all Braves and Red Sox fans would probably use different words to describe it.
I stayed up late to watch the games on Wednesday. I'm not really certain why - I didn't have any real vested interest in the outcomes, as my Brewers locked up the NL Central last week. They were still playing for home field advantage in the NLDS, true, but the Brewers game was not broadcast here in Virginia, and I have yet to convince my wife that spending over $150 for the MLB Extra Innings package is really a great deal when you think of it. It's also true that the outcome of the NL Wild Card was applicable to the Brewers, as they would play Atlanta had they won, but ended up with Arizona when the Cardinals pulled things out.
None of these were really big concerns, though, and by all rights I should have gone to bed when Sarah did. The Red Sox were ahead of a game but flawed Orioles team, the Yankees looked to have crushed the Rays epic comeback attempt, and the Braves led the Phillies and had their stellar bullpen coming up. I should have gone to bed and rested up for work the next day.
Boy, am I glad I didn't!
It's been written all over, in every media outlet imaginable and every format available by every baseball beat writer, blogger, or journalist, but I had the same reaction that nearly every single one of those individuals - that I just witnessed the greatest night of baseball in my entire life. I didn't have the epic experience of being at one of those wild games, and I didn't spend the night at a sports bar packed with friends and fans, but even for someone who was just flipping between three games on my couch in my pajamas, it was plain to recognize. It wasn't just the epic collapse of the Red Sox - the Mets went through a similar (though not QUITE as bad) fall just a few short years ago. It wasn't just the comeback by the Rays throughout September - remember that the Rockies went on something like a 21 game win streak in September just a few seasons past. And it certainly wasn't the excitement of two final playoff races going on simultaneously - that is a fairly common occurrence in baseball's run up to October.
No, I think that what made Wednesday so special was no particular event, game, situation, or scenario. What made that night special was the inconceivable confluence of so many events, scenarios, situations, and stories of human anguish and triumph all within the span of two short hours. (OK, so maybe I'm a little bit on the over dramatic side). I'd be willing to wager that we'll see epic collapses of teams that are expected to go to the postseason again soon (maybe not with a 99.99% chance of making the postseason before September, but still). We'll definitely see multiple playoff races come down to the last day of the season. We'll see epic comebacks, heartbreaking collapses, game-tying HRs in the 9th inning with a team only 1 strike from defeat, and we'll see teams losing and winning in extra innings with the season on the line.
What I don't think we'll ever see is all of these things playing out simultaneously, along with some of the most gut-wrenching failures and most exciting stories of resiliency in sports. We'll never see a rain delay that will be looked back at with more angst than the one that delayed the Red Sox - Orioles game. I doubt I will ever again get so drawn into a set of games that I really did not have a rooting interest in.
Those of us who, like me, decided to stay up and watch despite their better judgment, will never forget how special it was to watch three simple games of baseball on a Wednesday night in September.
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But, I promised you the case for Ryan Braun for MVP, so here goes.
One of the things that annoys me most as an engineer and generally statistically-minded baseball fan is the sense that you have to either be in one camp regarding statistics or the other. Either you're a traditionalist or you're a sabermetrician
The primary arguments I've seen why Matt Kemp should win the NL MVP over Braun are pretty diverse: he has a substantial lead in WAR, leads in the traditionalist categories of HRs, RBIs, SBs, plays better defense at a more premium position, did not have the benefit of hitting in front of Prince Fielder and playing all his home games in a hitter's ballpark, etc. These statements are all true (though the defense statement could be open to some interpretation). What these statements DON'T tell you is very important, however.
Matt Kemp played in 11 more games than Ryan Braun in 2011 (a 7.3% increase) and had exactly 60 more plate appearances (a 9.5% increase). While you could argue that you should reward Kemp for being more consistent and playing every game, I think it's crazy to punish a player for missing less than 10% of his team's games for legitimate injuries, and I think most people would agree. Given that premise, I think it's useful to "level the playing field" to look at the stats. To do this, I simply adjusted all of Braun's numbers by the 9.5% increase in PAs, and you get the following lines of stats:
Kemp: .324/.399/.586 (OPS of .986), 195 H, 115 R, 126 RBI, 39 HR, 40 SB (at 78.4% success rate), .419 wOBA, 10.0 bWAR (with a 9.0 oWAR), and 8.7 fWAR.
Braun (normalized): .332/.397/.597 (OPS of .994), 205 H, 119 R, 121 RBI, 36 HR, 36 SB (at 84.6% success rate) and .433 wOBA. I'm not totally sure if the WAR numbers scale this simply, but they would be 8.4 bWAR (7.78 oWAR), and 8.5 fWAR.
Looking at those numbers, I have a tough time really seeing anything to really separate the two. Braun actually leads in nearly all of the rate stats (and would lead in OBP at .396 to .377 if you removed IBB). Kemp would have a slight edge in some of the counting stats (RBI, HRs, SBs), but not a significant edge in any. The fWARs after the adjustment are almost identical, and that is WITHOUT removing the defense component that Kemp is supposedly so much better at than Braun. The bWAR difference is still significant, but I understand that stat takes into account things like BABIP and such, and I'm not really sold on just using a WAR leaderboard to pick an MVP. I think the stat is a great stat, but not the be-all-and-end-all measure of value that some seem to think it is.
The case on defensive value gets a little bit more dicey, mostly because even advanced defensive metrics are generally not as clear as offensive numbers. In general, most pundits seem to agree that Matt Kemp plays better defense than Braun at a more difficult defensive position (CF vs LF). While I definitely agree with the second point (CF being harder than LF), I'm not fully convinced that Kemp really plays defense all that well. His UZR/150 this year was -4.7 and his Fielding Bible +/- was at +1. Both of those numbers indicate around average defense in CF. Braun also put up a -4.7 UZR/150, but was grading slightly worse by Fielding Bible +/- at -3 for the year. Granted, those numbers are graded against an average or replacement player at each position, which would indicate that Kemp was slightly better defensively by virtue of his position. However, it just doesn't seem to me that Kemp has a significant enough advantage here to make a big difference in the MVP choice.
It's also said that these defensive metrics are more accurate measures of a player's skill when averaged over time. Kemp does not fare any better here: Braun has a -6.0 UZR/150 in LF over 4 full seasons with one noticeably terrible year (2009), while Kemp has a -9.6 UZR/150 in CF over around 4 full seasons with one noticeably terrible year (2010). Again, I don't see a whole lot of difference. In fact, you could argue that Kemp was not even the best choice to play CF on his own team this year - Tony Gwynn Jr. started 60 games in LF for the Dodgers, but has a career 17.2 UZR/150 in CF. All in all, I just don't buy the argument that Kemp is that much better defensively than Braun that it should really be used to determine MVP (One thing I can agree on is that Kemp has a much better arm than Braun, who throws a bit like me in softball - plenty of velocity, not quite enough attention to where it's going!).
Basically, I don't see any significant statistical difference between Braun and Kemp's numbers this year (if you look at their per game production). While I do not believe that the MVP should HAVE to come from a playoff team, I think that if two players are generally the same statistically, the edge should go to the player that helped his team to a playoff berth. In this case, that is Ryan Braun.
Case dismissed!
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As a coda (I PROMISE I'll be short!), here are my other award picks:
NL Cy Young: Clayton Kershaw. Ian Kennedy had a good year and his team is in the playoffs, but unlike the Braun/Kemp debate, this one is not statistically even. Kershaw led the league or tied for the lead in the following categories: Wins, ERA, Ks, and WHIP. He is also right near the top of every other major category. And I actually put Kershaw ahead of the all of the Phillies aces because I think he had MORE pressure than any of the Phillies pitchers - even though they were in a playoff race, they really weren't challenged most of the year, and Kershaw basically had to carry his team from a pitching standpoint, whereas the Phillies pitchers shared the load.
AL MVP: Miguel Cabrera. This one is by far the hardest call of all of the awards. I think that you can make a good case for Cabrera, Jacoby Ellsbury, Adrian Gonzalez, Jose Bautista, Dustin Pedroia, Curtis Granderson, and even a half-decent case for Ian Kinsler. And that's not even including the man who will probably win the MVP, Justin Verlander (for the record, while I don't think it should be impossible for a pitcher to win MVP, I think you need an all-time best type of season, and Verlander's falls short by that measure). There really is no "wrong" answer here - it almost comes down to just narrowing the choice down to a few and picking randomly. What swayed me? Cabrera led the league in AVG and OBP and was the primary offensive force for the division-winning Tigers. Though the average-to-poor defense and base running hurts him against several great defenders and runners, I think that his overall resume and circumstances give him a SLIGHT edge.
AL Cy Young: Justin Verlander. Do I really have to explain this? Anyone who watched Verlander pitch a few times this year should be clear on this one. He was flat-out dominant.
NL Rookie of the Year: Craig Kimbrel. I know a lot of people like Freddie Freeman for this award because his stats look pretty good. However, you have to compare the context - as a 1B, his offensive stats are only around league-average, and he rated as a poor defensive 1B. I would place both Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos ahead of Freeman for position players. I think Kimbrel gets the award for me, though, because he was so incredible (2.10 ERA and 14.84 K/9 in 77 IP) for most of the year (his very unfortunate September aside).
AL Rookie of the Year: Michael Pineda. Again, there are several deserving candidates (Alexi Ogando, Mark Trumbo, Ivan Nova, Dustin Ackley, Jeremy Hellickson, etc), but I think Pineda did the best given his circumstances - being expected to be a #2/#3 pitcher from Opening Day as a rookie. His stats (other than W-L) hold up well both in traditional categories like ERA and Ks and in sabermetric circles (WHIP, FIP). I think had Brett Lawrie been up for longer and continued to produce, he would have run away with this award.
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