As promised, I'm back to tackle my previews and predictions of the teams on the senior circuit, leading up to Opening Day on Thursday. Part Deux of my Preview (and you have to pronounce it duouh, as in Hot Shots, Part Deux) will work just like the first post on the AL from yesterday - I'll list how I think each of the divisions will play out as well as one question mark and one strength for each team.
Since the NL has 2 more teams than the AL and it took me long enough last night, let's get started!
NL East:
1. Philadelphia Phillies
2. Atlanta Braves (4 GB)
3. Florida Marlins (9 GB)
4. New York Mets (16 GB)
5. Washington Nationals (18 GB)
Philadelphia Phillies
Biggest Question Mark: We all know about the pitching (see below). Does this infield have one more great year left? The easiest question would have been "Will this really be the best rotation ever?", but I wanted to address that in the Exclamation Point instead. What could be a bigger obstacle for this team is actually what has been their strength over the last few years: the men manning the rest of the dirt outside of the pitcher's mound. This team has gotten a lot of production out of Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, and Carlos Ruiz (Placido Polanco fills out the last spot, and he's been productive as well, but played for the Tigers until last year). There are some reasons to think that run may be coming to an end (let's go in reverse order). Polanco is now 35, and his WAR over the last five years sure looks like a man on the decline: 5.0, 3.7, 2.5, and 1.8. Carlos Ruiz is 32, and last year may have been an aberration: his OBP of 0.400 was 47 points above his career average, and his OPS of 0.847 was 98 points above his career average (and that career average is about 1/4 last year's numbers). Jimmy Rollins is 32 and all of his offensive numbers show a 4 year decline. Chase Utley (32) has not regressed as much as Rollins, but his knee problems are very worrisome and he may not play until the All-Star Break. Finally, Howard (31) may not have regressed as much as others, but his SLG percentage and walks have shown a downward trend as well. The Phillies World Series hopes may rest more with these players' bats than with the rotation.
Exclamation Point: The rotation. Egads, the rotation! The Phillies starting 5 basically remind me of when I used to play MVP Baseball 2004 (the last MLB console video game I owned) and would turn the AI down to "Stone Stupid" so that I could trade for everyone awesome and win 150 games or so. They have four guys who would be the Opening Day starter for most of the league, and the 5th (Joe Blanton) is more than serviceable. More digital ink has probably been spilled this offseason about this pitching staff than any other single group of players, simply because the stats are just mind-boggling. This staff is going to be terrifying to face. The only stat I'm going to put forward is one that may be the most telling of all: we all know about the Cy Young's and the mind-boggling ERAs and WHIP numbers. The amazing thing to me is that these 5 guys are all extremely durable - they have each made at least 28 starts a year in: Halladay (7 of last 9 years), Oswalt (9 of 10), Lee (6 of 7), Hamels (4 of 5), and Blanton (6 of 6). The rest of the NL East better hope that trend changes this year.
Bottom Line: While I don't think this team will be as good as some pundits have been saying, there's no way I see them not winning this division with that rotation. Their offensive players may be in decline, but they started at a higher peak than most, so even a down year from all of them should be enough with this pitching staff. I don't think they're gonna run away with the division and hide by August, but they'll end up on top.
Atlanta Braves
Biggest Question Mark: Can Chipper Jones and Nate McClouth regain their old form? This question is probably a bigger deal for Chipper than McClouth, but it is relevant to both. Chipper is 38 this year, and while he sustained amazing statistics well into his 30s, the last two years have been significantly worse than what we got spoiled watching for so many years. Add the fact that he's coming off of injury, and there are more questions than answers. The good news is that Chipper raked in Spring Training, so he may have one or two more good years left after all. McClouth doesn't have the pedigree, but look back at his stats from his last year in Pittsburgh to remind you that he's capable of much more than the Braves have seen so far. Though there are other good offensive pieces here in Uggla, Heyward, McCann, and Prado, the Braves really need both of these guys to step up and produce.
Exclamation Point: The young guys. He didn't win the Rookie of the Year last year, but Jason Heyward was a sensation from the first day of the year. Without the pressure of his first year, he should be even more solid this season. Tommy Hanson showed last year that he has the potential to be an ace. And Freddie Freeman has drawn rave reviews as a prospect, and will have pretty solid job security at first base. Presumptive eventual closer Craig Kimbrel has electric stuff out of the pen. This team has some pretty nice young players that should only continue to improve.
Bottom Line: It'll be odd watching the Braves without Bobby Cox on the bench (at least on a daily basis - we were all pretty used to having the odd day or two without Bobby after he was ejected!). New manager Fredi Gonzalez has the pieces to have a great team - they should have plenty of offense to get by, and the top three starters (Derek Lowe, Tim Hudson, and Hanson) give you a chance to compete with anyone. Ultimately, though, they have the misfortune of being in the same division as the Phillies this year, and they just won't have enough to chase them down.
Florida Marlins
Biggest Question Mark: Can a team this young really play consistently for the entire season? Ages of projected starting lineup: 30, 27, 29, 28, 27, 23, 25, 21. Ages of projected starting rotation: 27, 34, 28, 24, and 27. Those numbers make me wanna go get my glove and tryout - I'm not passed my prime yet, right? The Marlins have a ton of talent, but whether they can consistently perform will be the big uncertainty this season. When a 27-year old Hanley Ramirez is one of your veteran leaders, you're a young team. (As as aside, I'm not sure someone who still gets benched for dogging plays is really a good choice for a "veteran leader.") We'll see if youth defeats beauty.
Exclamation Point: Live arms. The advantage of youth, of course, is that there is a ton of talent here, especially in the starting rotation. With the exception of Javier Vazquez (who should be much better in the NL, but who I will forever hate for destroying my fantasy team last season), all of the pitchers in this rotation are 28 and under, and all of these guys can light you up on any given night. I really think Josh Johnson has a chance to be the best pitcher in this division this year, and as noted above that's saying something. Anibal Sanchez threw a no-hitter FIVE SEASONS AGO as a rookie, and Chris Volstad is downright intimidating at 6'8". These guys could keep them in the race if they pitch up to their potential.
Bottom Line: While they have a lot of young talent in South Beach (and I'm not talking about the basketball team), this is not quite their time yet. The Marlins appear to be following their patented formula of win a World Series, get rid of your entire roster for picks and prospects, save money for several years while they develop, then make a run. That run may be coming soon, but it won't be this year.
New York Mets
Biggest Question Mark: What will they get out of Carlos Beltran, Jose Reyes, and Johan Santana? Three years ago, these three accounted for 18.5 WAR together, and if you would have told someone that in 2-3 years time they would all be fighting just for playing time, they would have thought you were loony. In the meantime, injuries have devastated this trio. Santana won't be back from surgery until at least the halfway point of the year, and it's unknown how close to 100% he'll be when (or if) he comes back. Jose Reyes has seen various injuries sap the speed that was once his calling card from his game, and Carlos Beltran is also coming off an injury-plagued campaign. Both Beltran and Reyes will be playing Opening Day, but it remains to be seen if either of them will be able to play at the level we've come to expect. And if the last few years are any indication, it's likely that one or both of them will spend some time on the DL at some point.
Exclamation Point: The top of the order. If, however, Reyes and Beltran stay healthy and produce numbers closer to their career averages than last year's, the top of this lineup could be a handful for anybody. I couldn't quickly (read: in one Google search) find the Mets projected Opening Day lineup, but it should be something like: Reyes, Angel Pagan, David Wright, Beltran, Jason Bay, Ike Davis... You can burn through a lot of pitching with that lineup if Reyes is back to stealing bases again this year. Call it a hunch (or call it a completely unsubstantiated wild ass guess), but I think that Beltran, Bay, Reyes, and Wright are all going to have bounce-back seasons (when healthy) and that this team will show flashes of greatness.
Bottom Line: Unfortunately for the Mets, the health issue will probably come back to bite them this year. On top of that, though they don't have an awful starting rotation, there is some potential for bad stretches because of inconsistency. Their bullpen could be a mess depending on K-Rod's status. In this division, this team just has too many flaws. But, on the bright side for Mets' fans, they shouldn't have to worry about the team blowing a big lead in the division race in the month of September!
Washington Nationals
Biggest Question Mark: Will this team be good enough to keep some fans loyal until Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg arrive? As much as I'd like to see the Nats be respectable this year - after all, they are the closest MLB team to my house and the only stadium I know I will catch at least a game at this year - it doesn't look pretty. They have a few bright spots, but on the whole this team doesn't have much going for it. Their roster up the middle will be a problem: Rick Ankiel should not be an everyday center fielder, Ian Desmond should be better this year, but he really looked lost at times last year, and Danny Espinosa is worse, and while Pudge Rodriguez is one of my favorite players all-time and still offers some value defensively, he hasn't even been average with the bat for about five years. Their pitching staff looks like it'll be mostly brutal again this year, and they really have to hope Livan Hernandez keeps finding ways to get major league hitters out with raw stuff that my mom could probably throw at this point. Meanwhile, as good as Bryce Harper is, the kid is only 18 and really could use some time to grow and hone his skills. Strasburg might make a cameo late in the year, but won't be of any real value until 2012. In the meantime, Nats fans will just have to go on suffering.
Exclamation Point: Anyone named Zimmerman. The Nats have two budding young stars that share a last name in Jordan and Ryan Zimmerman. Ryan Zimmerman is clearly the star on this team (until the return of Strasburg). While he's always been good with the glove, Zimm has really broken out offensively in the last two years. On the other side of the ball, Jordan Zimmerman should take big strides forward now that he is more than a year and a half removed from Tommy John surgery. If he can blossom into a solid #2 or #3 starter for this team, they'll have a brighter future moving forward. (Incidentally, both of these guys have connections to me, at least geographically. Ryan is from the Hampton Roads area where I live now and played summer ball in college for the Peninsula Pilots just down the road, while Jordan is from Auburndale, WI and went UWSP, which is only a short half hour drive from my hometown of Wausau.)
Bottom Line: Hang in there for at least this year, Nats fans! Though it's weird to say, thankfully Strasburg's injury was the elbow, not the shoulder, so there's no reason to believe he can't come back and be the lightning-in-a-bottle he was last season. He should be set to go to start the 2012 season, and if they can put a few more pieces in place (and Bryce Harper develops ahead of schedule), this team could have a much brighter outlook at this time next year.
NL Central
1. Milwaukee Brewers (What, you were expecting someone else?)
2. St. Louis Cardinals (1 GB)
3. Cincinnati Reds (3 GB)
4. Chicago Cubs ( 7 GB)
5. Houston Astros (23 GB)
6. Pittsburgh Pirates (27 GB)
Milwaukee Brewers
(Note: I am hoping to do a more in-depth look at my Brew Crew tomorrow, but for now I'll stick to the format for everyone else)
Biggest Question Mark: Can this lineup stay healthy for the whole year? Since I'm most familiar with my favorite team, there were lots of other questions I could have gone with here. Will Greinke and Marcum be better in the NL? Can Prince regain the power stroke from 2009? Will Carlos Gomez ever play up to his ability? Which Corey Hart will show up? (And of course, what's the over/under on games that Yuniesky Betancourt will single-handedly lose with his defense?) But to me, health is the biggest unknown hovering over the Brewers as they enter this season, and not just because of the rough Spring Training they had with respect to injuries (I mean, they even had Zach Braddock stung by a scorpion! Come on!). Of the teams that I think can contend for the postseason this year in all of MLB, the Brewers may be the one with the least depth throughout the team. The projected lineup and pitching staff look pretty potent, but if anyone misses significant time, the Brewers organization is like Old Mother Hubbard - there ain't nothing left in the cupboard. If even a few of the key contributors on this team go on the DL for large stints, I could be in for a frustrating season (and Sarah will be in for lots of whiney bitching, so I think I get the better end of the deal).
Exclamation Point: The top of the order/front end of the rotation. This team may not have depth, but they sure have some firepower on both sides of the pitcher/hitter duel. When all playing at their potential, the first 5 guys in the order (assuming Weeks, Hart, Braun, Fielder, McGehee) are as good as any in the NL, and have the potential to be as good as even the best of the AL lineups like the Red Sox. This team will put crooked numbers on the scoreboard at times. Likewise, the front end of the rotation looks formidable as well. If Zack Greinke truly is energized by playing on a contender (as all signs point to) and regains his form from 2009, and Shawn Marcum pitches like he did last year (but exchanging the Yankees and Red Sox lineups in the division for the Pirates and Astros), the 1-2-3 combo of Greinke-Gallardo-Marcum is just plain nasty. There may be some holes elsewhere, but that core lineup and pitching staff can make up for a lot of weaknesses.
Bottom Line: As a lifelong Brewer fan who has yet to actually see his team win their division in my lifetime, this season is definitely the most excited I have ever been for a Brewer team. The usual March routine for a Brewer fan most of my life involved us trying to convince ourselves that Jose Hernandez might be able to cut his K's this year, or that Jeff Suppan could regain his postseason form from 2006. These houses of cards I used to construct would inevitably crash down sometime between April and July. This year there is a much different buzz around the team, which is a testament to the moves the front office made this offseason. As Spider-man might say, however; with great expectations comes (the potential for) great disappointment. I've never really gone into a season with the expectation that the Brewers SHOULD win the division (it's usually something like "Well, they COULD win the division IF..."), so I know that if things fall apart, I will probably be much more upset.
St. Louis Cardinals
Biggest Question Mark: Can they overcome the loss of Adam Wainwright? No team suffered a more devastating injury this spring than the Redbirds. Having two perennial Cy Young contenders at the front of your rotation can compensate for a lot of other miscues, and Adam Wainwright will be sorely missed by this team. While you obviously can't plug in a replacemnt for Wainwright, it remains to be seen if the rest of the team can step up a little to pick up the slack. Tony LaRussa is one of the best coaches at coaxing the last bit out of his team (some would say he actually coaches the last bit and then some out), and I just have a sneaky feeling that this team will still be around when the dust clears. They still have Chris Carpenter to dominate opponents, and Westbrook, Garcia, and Lohse still give them an above-average rotation. I'll get to the positives of their offense below, but they also have to get big things out of Colby Rasmus and the ragtag bunch of infielders not named Pujols that they have assembled.
Exclamation Point: Albert Pujols (duh!) and the middle of the order. If Lance Berkman can shrug off last year's poor offensive showing and get closer to his career numbers, the Pujols-Holliday-Berkman combination in the middle of the lineup will give a lot of pitchers nightmares. (Of course, I'm still a little stunned that St. Louis thinks Berkman can play outfield full-time at age 35, something he hasn't done since 2004. Didn't they watch Vlad Guerrero in right field in the World Series?) I'm curious to see what Albert has in store for us this year, with his looming free agency and desire to show that he deserves the respect of a 10 year, $300M contract. He may be The Machine, but as anyone who watched The Matrix or Terminator series knows - it's not good to piss off the machines!
Bottom Line: While it's been trendy to jump off the Cardinals bandwagon after the Wainwright injury, I think this team will surprise some and make a run at the top spot in the division. The way things look now, I think the NL Central race is going to go all the way down to the wire. In the end, though, I don't think they can quite make up for the 5 or so wins a year that they lost by the injury.
Cincinnati Reds
Biggest Question Mark: Can they repeat the magic from last year's run? The reigning NL Central Division Champs surprised everyone last year with their push to the playoffs. Pretty much all of the principles from that team return this year, so why am I picking them to finish third this year? Because I just don't think this team can repeat that performance. The talent is there, but expecting the same level of performance or better out of Votto, Phillips, Rolen, Bruce, Stubbs, Gomes, and company may be unrealistic. Even with a slight regression on the offensive side, though, this team is gonna score runs. I'm actually more worried about the pitching staff. Johnny Cueto is starting the year on the DL, and Edinson Volquez is only recently back from Tommy John surgery and showed terrible control in his time back last year. Bronson Arroyo is the most consistent of the SPs, but he also is the least talented, and a regression to numbers more like his 2007-2008 season would not surprise me. Finally, Mike Leake and Travis Wood were stellar in the rookie years, but we'll see if they can repeat that success again. (Plus, much has been written about the last time Dusty Baker managed two stellar young arms with the Cubs and the fallout from that).
Exclamation Point: Power. This team has power on both sides of the ball. They may end up with the most HRs among starting outfielders in the league with the combination of Gomes, Stubbs and Bruce, and most everyone on the infield can belt a few as well. Arnoldis Chapman and his 105.1 MPH napalm ball have been well-documented, but other pitchers like Cueto and Volquez have some hot sauce as well. One thing is pretty much a guarantee with this team - they will be a lot of fun to watch this year.
Bottom Line: Again, it's more of a gut feeling than anything that made me jump St. Louis above the Reds in this preview, and I could easily see all three teams being in the race up to the very end. I don't think that the young Reds pitchers can duplicate the type of success they had last year, and a few key injuries could derail this team's playoff hopes as well. Additionally, I'm biased and really don't want the Reds to be as good as they were last year.
Chicago Cubs
Biggest Question Mark: Can the expensive veterans earn their salaries? The Cubs have one of the highest payrolls around, and last season several players definitely did not earn their keep. Alfonso Soriano and Kosuke Fukudome both made 8 digit bank for being only slightly above average (if that). Tyler Colvin looks like he's passed Fukudome for the starting RF gig, making the Japanese import only a very expensive bench player. Aramis Ramirez had a dreadful start to the year and was never able to fully recover. Carlos Zambrano nearly fought his way right off the team before apparently resolving some issues and pitching well in the second half (although the peripheral stats say he was incredibly lucky in that stretch). In the offseason, the team paid big money to free agent Carlos Pena, he of the 0.196 batting average, to come play first base. None of these guys are getting any younger; if they don't reverse the recent trends in their performance, it's gonna be another long year for the Cubbies.
Exclamation Point: Pitching. The Cubs do appear to have a strong pitching staff, both in the rotation and out of the pen. As much as I hate to admit it as a Brewers' fan, the starting five of Zambrano, Garza, Dempster, Wells, and Cashner could be pretty good, and even could challenge the three aforementioned teams for the top spot. Their bullpen should be rock solid as well, with the wild but entirely unhittable Carlos Marmol as the closer and Kerry Wood, Sean Marshall, and others providing envious depth. This team will need a strong year from the staff to have success at the Friendly Confines, which are not called that by most of the pitchers playing there.
Bottom Line: While they may show some flashes, the key cogs on offense are getting too old (or just plain too bad in some cases) to be relied upon to carry this team. The pitching staff is strong, especially if big ol' Carlos Zambrano can manage to not be a buffoon this year. Defense was a problem last year, and early indications in spring (I was listening to the MLB Gameday Audio when they played the Brewers and had like 4 errors in a few innings) suggest it won't be good this year as well. This team probably could have won the NL Central a few years ago, but the emergence of the Brewers and Reds along with the Cardinals continued excellence means they might not have enough this year.
Houston Astros
Biggest Question Mark: How bad will this lineup be? Outside of Hunter Pence and Chris Johnson, this lineup looks like a big problem for the Astros. As a Brewer fan, I have a pretty good idea that having Bill Hall as an everyday starter may not be conducive to winning baseball. Brett Wallace has potential, but was brutal last year. Carlos Lee may decide to leave in the middle of the game to hit a fast-food burger joint, and no one else in the lineup will scare pitchers. This is easily the worst offensive team in the division.
Exclamation Point: Front of the rotation. Thankfully for the Astros, their top 3 starters are going to keep them in a lot of games. Brett Myers has been really underrated if you look at his statistics as a starter. Wandy Rodriguez is maddingly inconsistant (I have had him on my fantasy team WAY too many years, including this one), but has the stuff to be a #1 pitcher. JA Happ rounds out the trio as a former Rookie of the Year who was the primary piece the Astros got back from the Phillies for Roy Oswalt last year. If they can keep the ball in the bandbox that is Minute Maid Park, they could surprise some people.
Bottom Line: By trading Berkman and Oswalt last year, the Astros announced loud and clear that they were looking to move on and embrace the next generation. Unfortunately, there's no reason to believe that this core group is going to right the ship anytime soon.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Biggest Question Mark: Is that really their starting five, or did ESPN screw up the depth chart? Unfortunately for Pirates fans, I have not seen any corrections, which means you're pretty much stuck with this bag of excrement. And they're bad. Really bad. Badder than ol' King Kong bad. The key to the Pirates struggles over the last forever has been a lack of quality pitching, and this year is no different. While I liked the acquisition of Kevin Correia, there is so much more overhauling of this staff required before they will ever be able to truly compete.
Exclamation Point: The young wave. The outlook is actually a little brighter on the offensive size, which is a good thing. Hitters like Pedro Alvarez, Garrett Jones, Neil Walker, Jose Tabata, and Andrew McCutchen should ensure that this team scores runs in bunches. And all of these players are young and still have room to improve, so the prospects on this side of the ball for the Pirates are a welcome change from some recent years. New manager Clint Hurdle should be able to keep this team competitive is a lot of games this year, which is a step in the right direction.
Bottom Line: This will not be the year that the Pirates break their unfortunate streak of consecutive seasons with a losing record. If they could only pass legislation in Pennsylvania forcing equal distribution of professional pitchers, this might be a different story.
NL West:
1. Los Angeles Dodgers
2. San Francisco Giants (2 GB)
3. Colorado Rockies (4 GB)
4. San Diego Padres (10 GB)
5. Arizona Diamondbacks (17 GB)
Los Angeles Dodgers
Biggest Question Mark: Can Matt Kemp and Andre Ethier step up and deliver for an entire season? It seems like we've been hearing about how these two are going to be breakout stars for a long time, but neither has really produced commensurate with those expectations yet. Last year, both of them got off to scorching starts to the year (Ethier posted an OPS of 1.406 in May, albeit in limited ABs), but struggled mightily once summer hit. Ethier was able to bounce back and hit better in August and September, but Kemp never really recovered. No one questions the talent or physical skills of either, but Kemp especially has begun to take some heat as someone who may not work hard enough at his craft. Whatever the reality, the Dodgers need these two to be the anchors of their lineup this year to have any kind of success.
Exclamation Point: Starting rotation. The Dodgers rotation has largely flown under the radar this offseason, but they could be about as good as anyone's from top to bottom. Clayton Kershaw has blossomed into a full-fledged ace, and Chad Billingsley is no slouch as a #2. Ted Lilly, Hiroki Kuroda, and Jon Garland are about as un-flashy as you can get, but they have been extremely solid and consistent over the years. All of them are helped by the fact that Dodgers Stadium has always been a great pitchers park. The Giants rotation gets all the pub in this division, but the Dodgers should be able to hold their own just fine.
Bottom Line: While it seems that everyone has been basking in the afterglow of the Giants World Series title and assuming they are the favorites in this division, I think the Dodgers probably have the best all-around team. It's weird to think that an LA team could be underrated by the national sports media. They're going to need big performances from their core players on offense (and a full healthy season by Rafael Furcal would be nice), but they have what it takes to capture this division.
San Francisco Giants
Biggest Question Mark: How will all of the extra innings pitched last season affect their young starters? While it may not be this team's biggest weakness, which is still on offense (see the bottom line), there should be a lot of concern in the Giants camp as to how the postseason run will affect their young stud arms going into this year. Sanchez, Cain, and Lincecum all pitched well over 200 innings last year including the postseason, and Madison Bumgarner threw around 130 or so. It's been well documented that pitchers, especially younger pitchers, show dips in their performance following years where their pitching loads increased dramatically. While I don't expect all 4 of these guys to have terrible years, it's possible that they might struggle at times or require a few trips to the DL. Considering that this starting rotation carried this team to the playoffs last year on their back, that could be cause for concern.
Exclamation Point: Umm.. let's see... pitching? Despite the worries due to the increased workload, this is still arguably the best staff in the league along with Philadelphia (although I give the edge to the Phillies because I think the bottom 3 are stronger than the Giants bottom 3). Lincecum and Cain at the top are a buzzsaw that should keep frustrating opposing offenses. If Barry Zito can pitch like he did at the beginning of last season, this team will definitely have a chance in every game.
Bottom Line: While I do love their pitching staff and I think they slightly improved their offense from last season, I can't believe how many people seem to forget how bad this team was offensively for most of the regular season last year. They barely squeeked into the playoffs, and there were no major upgrades in the offseason of the caliber of Adrian Gonzalez or Carl Crawford. Their pitching will keep them in the race, but I think they're going to again struggle to score enough to win the division.
Colorado Rockies
Biggest Question Mark: Can Ubaldo Jimenez and Carlos Gonzales reproduce their production from last year? Jimenez and CarGo had two of the more spectacular years in baseball last season. Both were in legitimate contention for the Triple Crown for their side of the ball until late in the year. Jimenez especially carried this team at the beginning of the season. And the scary thing is that Jimenez is 27, CarGo is only 25, so theoretically they could actually IMPROVE on last year's performance. There are some questions at 3B, 2B, catcher, and in the rotation, but this team's season will likely mirror the performance of its stars - Jimenez, Gonzalez, and Troy Tulowitzki.
Exclamation Point: Troy Tulowitzki. The Rockies' slugging shortstop only played in 122 games last year (about 75%) and still finished in the top 5 in the MVP vote (and I realize that argument would probably sound more impressive had Josh Hamilton not WON the AL MVP playing in 133 games). Tulo pretty much can do anything you'd ever want in a shortstop, as his offensive skills are balanced by being a fantastic defender. And he's only 26, so he still could improve. If Tulo can stay healthy for the entire year, this team will be more dangerous offensively than they were last year.
Bottom Line: While the Rockies may have an argument that they have the best three players in the division, it takes more than 3 to make a championship ballclub. There are too many questions in the rotation and the bullpen for me to believe this team will win the division, but I would not be at all surprised to see them in contention come September, and they've proven over the last few years to be very dangerous in that month.
San Diego Padres
Biggest Question Mark: OK, so where is the offense supposed to come from now, with Adrian Gonzalez gone? The short answer - it won't. The Padres play the Seattle Mariners in two interleague series this year to decide once and for all who is the most punchless team in the majors. And the Padres should have a fighting chance in that bout. I did like the acquisition of Ryan Ludwig last season and Cameron Maybin in the offseason, and there is a decent chance that some of the other players will have better years offensively this year (Chase Headley, I'm looking at you!). That being said, are there two guys on this roster you'd really feel good about filling out in the #3 and #4 slots on your lineup card? With Gonzalez out, there's no one on this roster who is going to scare opposing pitchers, especially in the Petco Palace where HRs go to die.
Exclamation Point: Bullpen. One of the main reasons this team stayed in contention as long as they did last year was the outstanding success of the bullpen. Many of the key cogs return this year: Heath Bell as perhaps the best closer in the league, Luke Gregerson, and Mike Adams. While I would not quite expect them to be as good as last year, this year's pen will have to be just as good at protecting a lead when (and if) one gets handed over to them. A team with an offense like this simply cannot afford to lose any games after they take the lead.
Bottom Line: The lack of offense that doomed this team at the end of last year will be THE ongoing issue this year again. Their pitching should be great again, especially in the bullpen, but I have some worries that some of the starters like Mat Latos may be due for a down year compared to last. In any event, I don't expect that the Friars will be in the division lead nearly as late into the year as they were last year.
Arizona Diamondbacks
Biggest Question Mark: Can this team get a better balance of strikeouts pitched to strikeouts batting? Last year, the DBacks set the MLB record for most Ks by a team in history. Given the number of terrible offenses over the years (including a few Brewer teams in the early 2000s), that's pretty impressive and not in a good way. Mark Reynolds departure will help somewhat, but I'm not convinced that Melvin Mora is really an upgrade at the position. On the flip side of the coin, I think this team is going to struggle with its pitching, especially in the rotation. Ian Kennedy is a decent SP, but not a #1 starter. With the exception of possible breakout (or bust) candidate Daniel Hudson, there isn't much there to get excited about.
Exclamation Point: Outfield. The strength of this team should be in the outfield, if they can perform up to expectations. We've all been waiting for Justin Upton to turn into a star, but that hasn't quite happened up to this point. Chris Young is another player with a lot of talent who seems to underachieve a bit. Xavier Nady is a serviceable player who brings that much coveted (and often totally worthless) veteran leadership to the group. If this team is going to make any noise at all in the division, these guys are going to have to have monster years.
Bottom Line: This team won't have the pitching or plate discipline to do much damage to anyone. The best case scenario for the DBacks is for their young budding stars to take a major step forward this year with an eye towards possibly contending in 2012.
Wow, so that's done now (finally!), and I desperately need to go to bed. As with the AL, picking a Wild Card team for the NL seems to be harder than picking the divisions for me. I think that all 3 options (St. Louis, Atlanta, and San Francisco) will be within a few games of each other as we get down to the wire. However, I'll pick the Giants as the Wild Card because of the post-season experience from last year (not that the experience in and of itself is so great, but confidence is a big factor in baseball and they now believe they should win it all). When in doubt, go with ridiculously awesome starting pitching.
Now, to bed with me!
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