I'm making this up as I go, but the structure of these team-by-team previews will go something like this: I'll predict the order teams will finish for each division, and elaborate on each team with some question marks for the season, some exclamation points for each team, and the bottom line (I thought about continuing the grammatical theme and calling that the period, but that sort of fell flat as I soon I thought more about it). I'm not gonna be like most sportswriters and predict actual records for two reasons: 1) first and foremost, I'm lazy and that sounds like a lot of work, and 2) because it'll be less embarrassing at the end of the year when I look back to find out how wrong I was now. I will give a rough guess as to how many games back from first each team will be, though. Oh, and another warning - I'm not gonna explain baseball statistics here. I know it's like a foreign language, I'm sorry. If you're really curious, I would head over to Baseball Reference for explanations.
So let's get into it, starting with the evil Empire of baseball divisions...
AL East:
1. Boston Red Sox
2. New York Yankees (5 GB)
3. Baltimore Orioles (10 GB)
4. Tampa Bay Rays (12 GB)
5. Toronto Blue Jays (18 GB)
Boston Red Sox:
Biggest Question Mark: Which Josh Beckett, John Lackey, and Dice-K are gonna show up this year? At his best, Josh Beckett was the ace of this staff and a Cy Young candidate every year. Last year, not so much. His ERA shot up to 5.78 and he carried an ugly 1.5+ WHIP, which are not the type of statistics you hope for from a pitcher you're paying $12M. John Lackey might not have been quite as good at his prime, but he still was a solid #1 pitcher for years with the Angels, but his ERA ballooned to 4.4 last year as well (on an $18M salary). With Dice-K, it's not so much a question of if he can return to Cy Young form and more a question of if he will actually throw strikes every now and then. I hate watching Red Sox games when he pitches because they take so LONG while he nibbles around the plate. If these three guys can regain their old form with Lester and Bucholtz pitching well, this rotation could be scary again. If not, the offensive juggernaut better not have off days!
Exclamation Point: The lineup. Oh man, that lineup! With the exception of Scutaro (who should probably be replaced with Jed Lowrie ASAP) and Saltalamacchia (who may finally hit enough to justify the cost of sewing all the letters on the back of his jersey), every player in the Red Sox lineup can be scary. Crawford and Gonzalez should be absolute beast in Fenway with the Green Monster and the short porch down the right field line. If everyone can stay healthy, which was the problem last year, they're gonna score a ton.
Bottom Line: As a transplant to the East Coast from the Midwest and a fan of a small-market team, I get a real kick out of the fact that the Red Sox and Yankees fans hate each other with a fiery passion, when they're essentially the same type of team. Red Sox fans at one point may have had a beef with the Evil Empire, but no more. As if it wasn't clear from the last 10 or so years, this offseason's spending spree (although technically they have yet to spend on Adrian Gonzalez, but still) showed that Boston no longer has the high ground to denounce their rivals for buying championships.
That being said, this is definitely one of the most impressive lineups in the league, and the rotation and bullpen have the potential to be solid as well. As much as I'm getting sick of Red Sox Nation (I mean, really - a Nation requires a geographic area and a system of government, so let's stop using that term for a fan base, please?), I don't see any way this team doesn't dominate.
New York Yankees
Biggest Question Mark: Will their lineup be able to score enough runs to overcome their pitching problems? I don't think any fans of the rest of the league shed a tear that the Yankees finally did NOT get their man this offseason when Cliff Lee signed with the Phillies instead (except for fans in the NL East, maybe). That left a giant hole in their starting rotation. Which they promptly tried to fill by signing Bartolo Colon (which, you have to admit, is a great way to fill a giant hole). After CC Sabathia, this is a decidedly unintimidating rotation (unless AJ Burnett can turn back the clock 5 years). Their gonna have to do it with offense.
Exclamation Point: They're gonna score runs. Thankfully for the Yankees, they have an offense that has a chance to overcome that pitching staff. I think ARod has at least one more great year left, Cano and Teixeira are studs, and the rest of their lineup is solid. It also helps to have a guy who comes out to Enter Sandman at the end of the game to nail things down.
Bottom Line: I think that missing out on Cliff Lee is gonna keep the Yankees from winning this division. While the lineup is gonna put up numbers, there is some danger that some of these guys are gonna spend significant time on the DL, as they're not getting any younger. The pitching staff isn't awful, but when you're gonna be facing that Red Sox lineup that many times, they need to be better than they are. Maybe they can just pitch CC on 3 days rest all year.
Baltimore Orioles
Biggest Question Mark: Can all of the young players put it together at the same time? One of my biggest surprises when I sat down to look at all the teams was the Baltimore Orioles - they actually look respectable this year! Looking good on paper and looking good on the field are not always the same thing, however, and while there is a potentially good team here, there is also a chance that they will crash and burn. If some of their everyday players like Matt Wieters, Adam Jones, and Nick Markakis can take another step, and the veterans like Reynolds, Lee, Roberts, Hardy, and Guerrero can bounce back with quality seasons, this is a good lineup. The pitching staff probably is even more exciting than the lineup, but there are no proven commodities there. If Duchscherer can bounce back from injury and Guthrie, Bergesen and Matusz take another step, this team might make some noise.
Exclamation Point: Veteran bargains. For all the nice things I had to say about the Orioles above, it is really hard to find one thing that is absolutely stellar about this team. They appear to have a solid lineup, the pitching staff has good potential, the bullpen should be good enough, and their team defense should be above average. But do they do anything great? But, since I locked myself in this format, I'm gonna highlight the veteran off-season acquisitions they made basically from the scrap heap of other teams. I think they really played their cards right, knowing that they weren't yet to the point of being able to challenge the Big Two in this division, but still getting useful guys that should help them be better than in the recent past. Derrek should be a big upgrade at first, both defensively and offensively, and Mark Reynolds was a good pickup for an offense that lacked power last year. Vlad the Impaler showed he still had some in the tank last year (although the World Series showed that his days in the outfield are WAY over). And JJ Hardy should bounce back and provide solid play at shortstop.
Bottom Line: It's not gonna be enough to really contend in this division, and there's a lot of potential for disaster here, but the outlook is as good as it's been for a while in Baltimore. They should be able to crawl out of the AL East cellar, and I think that Buck Showalter will get this team to the point where they will surprise some people.
Tampa Bay Rays
Biggest Question Mark: How will this team gel, especially on offense? I almost went with "Do they actually still have enough players?" here. This offseason, ballplayers were leaving Tampa like their timeshares were booting them out before the influx of Snow Birds. They still do have some returning talent on the offensive side with Longoria, Zobrist, and Upton, and Manny Ramirez could provide a big boost, but Joe Maddon is gonna have to do a lot of tinkering with this lineup before he figures out everyone's role. It's not that I think their offense is going to be bad, per se, but I think it will take some time to shake out.
Exclamation Point: Starting rotation. If you were starting a baseball franchise on a videogame, I'm not sure there's a starting rotation in baseball that you'd put above this one. They've got a ton of young talent in the mix here, and if they all pitch as well as they can, the Rays could surprise me and contend with the big boys in this division. David Price is gonna be a monster for years to come, and Shields, Davis and Niemann all showed they can be good last year as well. If Jeremy Hellickson is as dominant as all of the pundits seem to think he is (and he better be, since I drafted him in my fantasy league), this staff will be fearsome.
Bottom Line: A few years ago, the Rays were the feel-good story in baseball of the little man shocking the Goliath(s). Those stories always have to end sometime, and this year could be it. However, despite all of the defections in the offseason, I think that the management did the right thing in continuing to stay the course, build through the farm system, and bring in just enough pieces to maybe make some noise while they reload. This is the way all small-market clubs need to operate (now if only they had a fan base that would actually show up once in a while).
Toronto Blue Jays:
Biggest Question Mark: Can they repeat their surprising success from last year? Unfortunately, "success" in the AL East if you're not in Boston or New York is a winning record and third place finish, like the Blue Jays had last year. Unfortunately, I think the answer to that question this year is no. There are too many young guys that need to step up (like Kyle Drabek and JP Arencibia) and/or players that need to prove their success wasn't a fluke (Jose Bautista). I just don't think they'll be able to get it done.
Exclamation Point: Bullpen. Even though the Blue Jays lost some arms from their pen from last year, they should be excellent again this year. Jon Rausch is not a top-notch closer, but he's a reasonably reliable option. Octavio Dotel can be lights out (or not, depending on the year) and the lesser-known names like Jason Frasor and Casey Janssen fill out what should be a pretty solid group.
Bottom Line: I just don't think this team has enough to make a serious push this year. If Jose Bautista can continue to mash and the other young hitters progress, and if the young but extremely talented rotation can put it together, they could surprise me. If not, it could be a long year.
AL Central:
1. Minnesota Twins
2. Chicago White Sox (2 GB)
3. Detroit Tigers (4 GB)
4. Kansas City Royals (14 GB)
5. Cleveland Indians (22 GB)
Minnesota Twins
Biggest Question Mark: Is Justin Morneau 100% and will he stay that way? Concussions and post-concussion syndrome have to be some of the scariest injuries for an athlete, not just because of the potential for long-term brain damage, but because they are so difficult to predict recovery. Most injuries are pretty simple: roll an ankle, you might be out a week or two. Tommy John surgery? About a year. Suffer a concussion, and it could be 2 days or you might be done for good. Before he got hurt, Justin Morneau was having his best season ever, which is saying something for a former AL MVP and MVP runner-up. If he is back healthy and can stay in the lineup, this team has all of the pieces to be great. They still should be a good team without him, but Morneau's presence pushes this team over the top.
Exclamation Point: A lineup with no apparent holes. The Twins starting nine offensively might be one of the most consistent in the league. They have 7 starters who had an OPS above .750 last year (Mauer, Morneau, Delmon Young, Cuddyer, Danny Valencia, Jason Kubel, and Jim Thome). The other two spots, Denard Span and Tsuyoshi Nishioka from Japan, are both decent speed/on-base guys. This lineup should be tough from top to bottom.
Bottom Line: As one has come to expect from the Twins in the last decade, this team should be solid in pretty much every facet, without being flashy in any of them. My time spent in the Twin Cities gave me ample opportunity to watch the Twins win with teams that had a lot less talent across the board than this year's team does, and I have a great deal of faith in Ron Gardenhire and the coaching staff. They should win the AL Central.
Chicago White Sox
Biggest Question Mark: Will Adam Dunn hit 50 home runs? Dunn has been one of the most consistent sluggers (next to Prince Albert, of course) in the league. If you needed to place a bet on anyone to hit around 40 HRs from year to year, Dunn would probably be your safest bet. But he hasn't really had a great supporting cast around him. Don't believe me? Go look at last year's Nationals batting stats. With the move to the White Sox, not only does Dunn have his best supporting cast in years, but he gets to slot into the DH spot, where his defensive limitations won't force defensive substitutions. I have a feeling he's gonna have a monster year.
Exclamation Point: OK, since I sort of violated my structure and talked about a strength of the team in the Question Marks section, I'll highlight a weakness here. How about, "Brent Morel is the starting 3B? Wow!" This roster does have some holes, and none of them is bigger than at third base. If Morel or backup Mark Teahan surprise us, this White Sox team could give the Twins all they can handle.
Bottom Line: This team is a lot like the rival Twins in the sense that they always seem to overachieve, even when people think it's gonna be a rebuilding year for them. They have a solid, if unspectacular, starting rotation, and the bullpen should be excellent. Since they got a little bit more thunder this year in the Big Donkey, I think that they'll make it a race all the way to the end in the AL Central again this year. My only concern is that injuries to a few key players could derail their season.
Detroit Tigers
Biggest Question Mark: Will they get Boom or Bust from some of these guys? The Tigers seem to have a bunch of players that have the potential to follow one of these two paths this year, and the Tigers season will hinge on which players step up. Magglio Ordonez looked to be near the end a few years ago, but has put together a little resurgence. Brennan Boesch lit the world on fire in the first half last year, but was terrible after the All-Star break. Austin Jackson had a good 2010, but can he really continue to hit near .300 with all those K's? What about Inge and Peralta and Avila and Raburn? We all thought a few years ago that the Tigers were gonna rewrite the offensive record books and were surprised, so we'll see what this year's team has in store.
Exclamation Point: Front of the rotation. I could've said Miguel Cabrera, but we'll go with the first 3 pitchers in the rotation since I think that a player with a Drunk Driving arrest along with the history that he has should be suspended for a significant portion of the season (like 25 or 50 games). The top 3 guys in this rotation (Verlander, Max Scherzer, and Rick Porcello) could be a great 1-2-3 combination. Verlander will be a Cy Young candidate like always, but Scherzer really looked like he figured it out after his stint in the minors last year, and Porcello was solid at the beginning of the year before running out of gas. With another year under their belt, these guys should be better.
Bottom Line: While I like some of the pieces of this ballclub, I just don't think they have the depth or talent across the board that Minnesota or Chicago have. The rotation and Cabrera alone should keep them in the hunt, but I think they'll fall a little short.
Kansas City Royals
Biggest Question Mark: When will the help arrive? For years, all of the minor league scouts and pundits have been raving about the Kansas City farm system. So far, results at the major league level have been tepid at best, and humiliating at worst. They traded their unquestioned ace (Zach Greinke) for some talent, but not an immediate impact player. While this year's roster certainly shows signs of the improvements in store, it's clear that the help has not arrived just yet. The current rotation is just terrible, with no one I'd be comfortable labeling above a #4 starter in the bunch. The bullpen looks much better, but the lineup has some glaring holes for now. So, while the end of the year might be exciting for Royals fans as the young guns start to filter up to the big league club, they're gonna have to wait till next year to make a major impact.
Exclamation Point: Bullpen. One nice strength this team does have is their bullpen. Joakim Soria is one of the better closers in the league, and they have a bunch of young talent backing him up in Jeffress, Crow, and O'Sullivan. However, this group is young and does have the potential to implode. In comparison to that starting rotation, however, this group comes off smelling rosy.
Bottom Line: It won't be this year, Royals fans, but it looks like the train may finally be going somewere other than Nowhere, USA.
Cleveland Indians
Biggest Question Mark: Can Grady Sizemore and Travis Hafner (and Carlos Santana in a different sense) get back to their old form? Did you know that Pronk actually led the entire AL in OPS in 2006 after posting a ridiculous 0.308/0.439/0.658 line and a 1.097 OPS? I was pretty stunned to see that, since it seems like forever since Hafner's been an intimidating hitter. In comparison to that 2006, the last two years were no match, but he's been somewhat productive, albeit without gaudy numbers. Likewise, everybody tapped Sizemore as a budding superstar, but injuries and a subpar 2009 season have sort of derailed that for now. If both of these guys can recapture a little of the old magic, it would go a long way for this young team. If not, it's gonna be another long, brutal sports season in the Cleveland area. (I put Santana in the question because he's coming back from that fluke knee injury last year as well).
Exclamation Point: Shin-Soo Choo. Because he's got an awesome name and has put up really stellar numbers under the radar the last 3 years. Over 20 steals and homers the last two years, while putting up an OBP around .400? Those are MVP caliber numbers on a winning team. Unfortunately, the Indians have not been a winning team, so Choo's runs and RBI totals have been lackluster, and he's been out of the media spotlight.
Bottom Line: As the groundskeepers once said about the fictional Cleveland Indians in Major League, "They're still shitty." They have some nice young pieces in Choo, Santana, LaPorta and Brantley, but this team is a long ways off from turning the Cleveland sports curse around.
AL West:
1. Texas Rangers
2. Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (located in Southern California on the western side of the United States) (4 GB)
3. Oakland Athletics (9 GB)
4. Seattle Mariners (20 GB)
Texas Rangers
Biggest Question Mark: Why didn't they put Neftali Feliz in the rotation? As a baseball fan, I am amazed at how hard it is to convince some people that certain parts of convential baseball wisdom are ridiculous. One of the best examples would the idea of the closer and the save statistic. While it is certainly huge to have a stud reliever to bring in when it's tight at the end of a game (like a Mariano Rivera), using one of your best pitchers for only 50-70 innings a year, of which about half are with a 3 run lead, is just stupid. And the Rangers really dropped the ball in doing the "safe" move and putting Feliz back at closer instead of in the starting rotation. This team has a lot of offensive firepower, but there were years of Rangers teams that had gaudy offensive numbers and still stunk up the joint. Last year, their World Series run was partially triggered by their surprisingly good pitching, and moving Feliz to the rotation would have been the best way to address the gaping hole Cliff Lee left. Instead, they have a lock-down closer to trot out whenever the game's already decided in the 9th.
Exclamation Point: Offensive power. This team probably has the most impressive collection of physically impressive power hitters in the majors. Between Josh Hamilton, Nelson Cruz, Adrian Beltre, and Chris Davis, they have a bunch of guys who can really mash the baseball. Their pregame batting practices will be impressive. And that's not even mentioning others like Kinsler and Young and Napoli who are no slouches either.
Bottom Line: This team will definitely hit, and their bullpen looks solid, so the only real weak spot looks to be the starting rotation. However, if Tommy Hunter comes back healthy and CJ Wilson and others continue to progress, they should have enough to make another run into the playoffs. Especially if Cruz and Hamilton can both play an entire healthy season at the same time.
Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Biggest Question Mark: Do they have enough pop at the plate to pass the Rangers? While the Angels have shown us in the past that elite power is not essential to a winning team, it certainly helps. This team doesn't really have any one player that people are going to HAVE to pitch around in key situations this year, unless Kendrys Morales comes back and rakes. Torii Hunter and Vernon Wells have some power, but both are definitely on the decline (Wells resurgence last year notwithstanding). And Bobby Abreu is not gonna put on a show like he did 5 years ago. It'll be interesting to see if Mike Scioscia can again win with mostly small ball.
Exclamation Point: Starting rotation. Or maybe it won't matter, because this starting rotation is pretty darn good. Jered Weaver got criminally underappreciated last year, and Dan Haren gives them basically a #1 and #1A type of staff. Ervin Santana has proved himself to be valuable, and Joel Piniero has really blossomed from a liability to a quality back of the rotation starter. The only unknown here is whether Scott Kazmir can recapture the magic or if he's totally done. He was absolutely awful last season (5.94 ERA), but he's only 27 and 4 years removed from posting 239 K's.
Bottom Line: You know this team is going to pitch, defend well (Peter Bourjos better be stellar in CF to displace Wells and Hunter), run the bases, and do the little things right. They're gonna give the Rangers a push till September, but I just don't think they have enough offensively to get it done.
Oakland Athletics
Biggest Question Mark: Where the heck is the offense on this team going to come from? I've seen some analysts pick the A's to win the AL West this year, but I look at that lineup and think that is ludicrous. It reminds of the Mariners last year, who were the sexy pick to ride pitching and defense to glory. The reality is that you have to score runs somehow, and this team looks to be pretty slim on that front. Josh Willingham had a great year last year, but nobody talked about it since he played for the Nats. Kurt Suzuki is above average offensively for a catcher, but doesn't have too much power. Kevin Kouzmanoff and David DeJesus are decent offensively and could take a step forward, but I think this team will lose a lot of low-scoring ballgames.
Exclamation Point: Starting rotation. What this team SHOULD do well is pitch. Cahill, Andersen, Braden, and Gonzalez are as solid 1-4 as you'll see. If these guys can all stay healthy (which has been an issue for some) and make another step forward, they should keep the A's in a lot of games.
Bottom Line: I just don't believe this team as constructed can compete with Los Angeles or Texas. Whenever you have great pitching, you've got a shot, but it's a long shot in this case.
Seattle Mariners
Biggest Question Mark: See Oakland A's above. Times about 10. You remember how I mentioned that the Twins had a solid lineup across the board with 7 players OPSing over 0.750 last year? The Mariners had 2 players with at least 100 ABs that OPSed 0.750 - Ichiro at 0.754 and Russell "the Muscle" Branyan at 0.804. Branyan is now gone, and while offseason pickup Miquel Olivo and Jack Cust will help a little, this is still a terrible offensive team. I know that you can't blow up the model after a single year, but I expected the Mariners to be more aggressive pursuing anyone who can swing a bat (Manny Ramirez, anyone?) this offseason, and their fans are going to suffer the consequences again this season.
Exclamation Point: King Felix. Simply put, Felix Hernandez is the best pitcher in the AL. You could make an argument that he's the best in all of MLB as well, though Halladay or Lincecum enter that conversation as well. His presence alone would make the rotation pretty good, but there is potential for some of the other pieces here to have a solid year as well. Doug Fister was good at times (and terrible in stretches as well), and few pitchers in the league have seen the highs and lows that Eric Bedard has. Still, knowing that King Felix will get the ball every 5 days must be a comfort for the suffering Mariners fans.
Bottom Line: Same script as last year. Felix will pitch great, they'll be solid defensively, but woeful on the offensive side. That's not a recipe for winning baseball.
Whew! That took way longer than I expected. Hopefully I can plow through the senior circuit a little faster tomorrow.
EDIT: I realized that I did not put out my prediction for the Wild Card team in the AL. That was kind of an unconsciously intentional oversight, because for whatever reason I find it more difficult to pick a Wild Card team than to rank the divisions. There isn't really any logic for this, but it led me to omit my pick. I thought about being more daring and picking either the White Sox or Angels, but I'm gonna go with the New York Yankees, despite my nervousness about their pitching. I think they'll just barely beat out the White Sox.
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